Financial Insights
Weekly Update
The U.S. stock market remains strong, but the economic backdrop is becoming more complicated. On one hand, corporate earnings and AI-related investment continue to support equities, while elevated inflation, rising Treasury yields, and a weakening hiring environment are complicating the economic outlook for the remainder of 2026.
As the economy keeps chugging along in the late cycle expansion phase of the current business cycle, the combination of an increased 10 year Treasury yield, rich oil prices, and renewed Federal Reserve tightening has our close attention.
The S&P 500 reached a new record, closing high earlier this week, its first since August. This is encouraging, seeing stocks performing well despite a more restrictive interest-rate environment.
A positive for the US economy is the continued expansion of economic growth. The second quarter GDP was revised down a touch but still showed a healthy gain for the quarter with consumer spending, business investment, and exports contributing to the expansion. This is important because economic growth remains positive despite increased inflation and interest rate pressure.
Another item that has our attention is the labor market. The September payroll growth was a modest number, the unemployment rate remains consistent, but hiring has slowed. The labor market has been a significant engine of economic growth, and now the numbers are showing that companies are generally holding on to workers, but they are becoming more cautious about adding new employees.
As we start to roll into the last few months of the year, we are continuing to monitor the economic landscape to see if long term interest rates remain elevated even while economic growth and hiring moderate. Currently, the economy is not experiencing a widespread contraction as economic growth remains positive, earnings are staying strong, and the unemployment rate remains unchanged.
Jodi is originally from Redlands, California. She moved to Arizona in 1996 after receiving her Bachelor of Arts degree in Psychology from the University of Redlands. Her first job out of college happened to be as a receptionist at a small Broker/Dealer in Phoenix, and her interest in the world of finance was born. From receptionist, she moved on to larger firms and earned various securities licenses, working in Customer Service, Operations, Compliance, and finally, Trading.
Max Rossiter is a native of Gilbert, AZ and a recent graduate of Arizona State University where he earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Public Service and Public Policy from the W.P. Carey School of business. He comes to the team as a Financial Advisor Associate, focusing on providing financial guidance for the professional and private clients.
Kevin is a native of Buffalo, NY, a graduate of Mercyhurst College (Erie, PA), and has been advising individual investors since 1999. Kevin focuses on providing financial strategies to the professional athlete.
Tim Carpenter started his financial career with Dean Witter 30 years ago. Tim serves as the Portfolio Manager and cornerstone of our Biltmore Wealth Management team. Tim’s primary focus on portfolio management provides a breadth of expertise and knowledge that enables the firm to manage risk and achieve financial goals for our clients.